03_-_Lecture-_presidential.pdf

1 Election Politics ? In 1788 and 1792, George Washington was the unanimous choice among the Electors ? 1796?Neither candidate (Adams and Jefferson) was formally nominated ? Our first, real presidential campaign The 1796 Election ? The 1796 election marked the first time in history that power passed from one ?ruling? administration to another without force of arms ? It also provoked actual fights and violence in several cities ? Jefferson branded an atheist by Federalists ? Adams accused of being a pro-British monarchist John Adams ? Adams (Federalist) elected with 71 electoral votes ? Jefferson (Dem-Rep) chosen vice president with 68 votes ? Washington?s presidency was succeeded by an administration headed by the leaders of two hostile political organizations ? Though Adams was president, real force was still Alexander Hamilton ? Only two of Adams? cabinet members were loyal to him; rest owed their positions to Hamilton Election of 1800 ? Formal party organizations were in place ? Congressional caucuses chose nominees for president and vice president 2 Election of 1800 -- Federalists ? Without having been formally nominated, President Adams stood as the Federalist candidate for reelection ? Charles Cotesworth Pinckney of SC was the vice presidential candidate The Democratic-Republicans ? Jefferson was the D-R candidate for president ? Aaron Burr of New York was the nominee for vice president ? Federalist campaigners urged voters to choose ?God?and a religious President? over ?Jefferson . . . and no God? ? Federalists warned that if Jefferson was elected, ?Murder, robbery, rape, adultery and incest will be openly taught and practiced.? ? Jefferson received 73 votes ? Burr received 73 votes ? Adams received 65 votes ? Burr refused to concede ? Election went to House of Representatives ? Hamilton supported Jefferson---the lesser of two evils ? The deadlock prompted passage of the 12th Amendment (1804) Evolution of the Selection Process ? Changes to the selection process have been extra-constitutional: ? Evolution of political parties ?Media coverage/communication ? Transportation The Electoral College ? ?[T]he most dangerous blot in our Constitution? (Thomas Jefferson). 3 ? Electors cast TWO ballots, at first both were for president ? 1789 -- Process took 3 months to complete ? 1804 ? 12th Amendment ratified by states ? Process complicated by rise of political parties ? Parties created a separate nomination stage ? Controlled by party elites in Congress ? Congressional Caucus = King Caucus ? Election of 1824 brought end to King Caucus Election of 1824 Andrew Jackson (TN) Henry Clay (KY) William Crawford (GA) John Quincy Adams (MA) 1824 -- Issues ? Sectional rivalries ? All supported protective tariffs ? Federal program of internal improvements ? Slavery not yet a divisive issue ? Adams?support in New England and manufacturing interests; also support in NY ? Jackson and Crawford drew from the South ? Jackson and Clay divided the west 1824 Votes needed 261 x .5 + 1 = 131* Popular vote Electoral vote ? Jackson 152,933 (42%) 99 ? Adams 115,696 (32%) 84 ? Clay 47,136 (13%) 37 ? Crawford 46,979 (13%) 41 total 261 * Electoral College can?t do fractions . . . ? 1824 Election ? V.P. ? The vice presidential electoral votes were cast as follows: - Calhoun (182): AL-5, DE-1 (of 3), IL-3, IN-5, KY-7 (of 14), LA- 5, MD-10 (of 11), ME-9, MA-15, MS-3, NH-7 (of 8), NJ-8, NY- 29 (of 36), NC-15, PA-28, RI-3 (of 4), SC-11, TN-11, VT-7 - Sanford (30): KY-7 (of 14), NY-7 (of 36), OH-16 - Macon (24): VA-24 - Jackson (13): CT-8, MD-1 (of 11), MO-3, NH-1 (of 8) - Van Buren (9): GA-9 - Clay (2): DE-2 (of 3) - Not Cast (1): RI-1 (of 4) 4 Election goes to House ? John C. Calhoun elected Vice President by Electoral College 182 to 79 ? 12th Amendment ? House must choose from TOP 3 electoral vote getters ? Clay dropped from consideration; supported Adams ? Adams won on first ballot 13-7-4 ? Clay awarded with Sec. of State ? 1824 election brought end to King Caucus National Conventions ? Anti-Masons and National Republicans were first to use national nominating conventions in 1831 ? Democrats used convention in 1832 ? Delegates selected by states and were allocated primarily on the basis of state population ? 1850-1950 ? brokered conventions Recent Reform ? Democratic Party adopted a set of internal reforms following its loss of the presidency in 1968 ? Shift of influence within the party from party professionals to amateurs ? Candidate enthusiasts ? Issue enthusiasts Introduction of Primary Elections ? 1901 Florida introduced primary election ? INTRA-party elections ? Open ? Closed (OH uses semi-closed primary) ? Blanket Contemporary Selection Process ? Stage 1 ? defining pool of eligible candidates ? Stage 2 ? nomination (delegate selection; caucus conventions, primaries) ? Party Convention ? Stage 3 ? general election campaign ? Stage 4 ? validation in Electoral College Pre-convention ? Caucuses ? Primaries ? Open ? Closed ? Blanket 5 Conventions! ? 2012 Republican National Convention ?Week of August 27-Tampa, Florida ? 2012 Democratic National Convention ?Week of Sept. 3-Charlotte, NC Barack Obama Pledged: 1,414 Superdelegates: 215 Total: 1,629 Hillary Clinton Pledged: 1,243 Superdelegates: 243 Total: 1,486 Needed to Win: 2,024 Democrats: 3,253 pledged 794 Superdelegates 4,047 Total Delegate Allocation?Republican National Convention ? For Jurisdictions with Constitutionally Elected Members of Congress: ? 10 At-Large delegates from each state, that is, 5 at-large delegates for each U.S. Senator [Rule 13(a)(1)]. ? 3 District delegates for each U.S. Representative as established by the 2010 census [Rule 13(a)(3)]. ? For Jurisdictions without Constitutionally Elected Members of Congress [Rule 13(a)(4)]: ? 6 at-large delegates from American Samoa. ? 16 at-large delegates from the District of Columbia. ? 6 at-large delegates from Guam. ? 6 at-large delegates from the Northern Mariana Islands. ? 20 at-large delegates from Puerto Rico. ? 6 at-large delegates from Virgin Islands. ? For all Jurisdictions - 3 party leaders: the national committeeman, the national committee woman, and the chairman of the state Republican Party. [Rule 13(a)(2)] ? Bonus Delegates ? President: States casting a majority of their 2008 Electoral Votes for the Republican Candidate receive 4.5 + 0.60 × the Jurisdiction's Total 2012 Electoral Vote in bonus delegates. Should the District of Columbia cast the majority of their electoral votes for the Republican Candidate, the District will receive 4.5 + (0.30 × 16) in bonus delegates. Round any fractions UP to the next whole number. [Rules 13(a)(5) and 13(a)(7)] ? U.S. Senate: Award 1 bonus delegate for each Republican Senator elected in the 6 year period between January 1, 2006 and December 31, 2011. Limit 2. [Rule 13(a)(6)] ? Governor States electing a Republican Governor between January 1, 2008 and December 31, 2011 receive 1 bonus delegate. Limit: 1. [Rule 13(a)(5)(i)] ? U.S. House: States electing Republicans to 50% or more of their U.S. House seats between January 1, 2008 and December 31, 2011 receive 1 bonus delegate. Limit 1. [Rule 13(a)(5)(ii)] ? One Chamber: States electing a Republican majority to one chamber of the state legislature (OR the legislature is presided over by a Republican) between January 1, 2008 and December 31, 2011 receive 1 bonus delegate. Limit 1. [Rule 13(a)(5)(iii)] ? All Chambers: States electing a Republican majority to all chambers of the state legislature (OR all chambers are presided over by a Republican) between January 1, 2008 and December 31, 2011 receive 1 bonus delegate. Limit 1. [Rule 13(a)(5)(iv)] [Rule 13 Membership in Convention] Running for President ? 2008 presidential race ? Bush/Cheney raised $191,617,196 fed funds $67,560,000 spent $183,052,265 ? Gore/Lieberman raised $132,624,544 fed funds $83,016,084 spent $117,999,909 Bush/Cheney 2004 ? Individuals $271,814,020 (74%) ? Fed funds $74,620,000 (20%) ? PAC $2,917,017 (1%) ? Other $17,877,764 (5%) 6 Kerry/Edwards 2004 ? Raised $ 326,236,288 ? Spent $ 310,013,730 ? Individuals $ 225,283,370 (69%) ? Fed funds $ 74,620,000 (23%) ? PAC $ 141,918 (<1%) ? Other $ 26,191,000 (8%) Chuck Baldwin Constitution Bob Barr Libertarian John McCain Republican Cynthia McKinney Green Ralph Nader Independent Barack Obama Democrat 2008 presidential candidates?. raised spent Baldwin 258K 208K Barr 1M 1M McKinney 199K 145K Nader 4M 4M Source of Funds Individual contributions $656,357,572 PAC contributions $1,830 Candidate self- financing $0 Federal Funds $0 Other $88,626,223 Individual contributions $199,275,171 PAC contributions $1,407,959 Candidate self- financing $0 Federal Funds $84,103,800 Other $83,306,833 2008 Campaign Finance- All candidates/parties Money Raised Expenditures Source: Federal Election Commission http://www.fec.gov/disclosurep/pnational.do To any candidate committee (per election1) To any national party committee (per year) To any PAC, state/local party, or other political committee (per year) Aggregate total Individual can give: Pre-BCRA: $1,000 $20,000 $5,000 $25,000 per year 2004 Cycle: $2,000, subject to aggregate limit2 $25,000 per party committee, subject to aggregate limit $10,000 to each state or local party committee (Levin funds) 3 $5,000 to each PAC or other political committee, subject to aggregate limit $95,000 per two-year election cycle as follows: · $37,500 per cycle to candidates; and · $57,500 per cycle to all national party committees and PACs (of which no more than $37,500 per cycle can go to PACs) 2006 Cycle4: $2,100, subject to aggregate limit $26,700 per party committee, subject to aggregate limit $10,000 to each state or local party committee (Levin funds) $5,000 to each PAC or other political committee, subject to aggregate limit $101,400 per two-year election cycle as follows: · $40,000 per cycle to candidates; and · $61,400 per cycle to all national party committees and PACs (of which no more than $40,000 per cycle can go to PACs) Multicandidate committee can give5: Pre-BCRA: $5,000 $15,000 $5,000 No limit BCRA: Same Same Same Same Other political committee can give: Pre-BCRA: $1,000 $20,000 $5,000 No limit BCRA: Same Same Same Same 7 The Popular Election Median Voter Theorem ? Duncan Black ? Anthony Downs? Economic Theory of Democracy Median Voter Theorem ? Voters can be arranged on a left-right continuum ? Candidates position themselves accordingly Left -- Liberal Right -- Conservative Moderate Moderate Liberal Conservative Median Voter Primary Elections Democrats Republicans During primary elections (intra-party elections), candidates will ?move to the party middle? in order to attract as many party voters as possible Liberal Conservative Liberal Conservative Moderate Liberal Conservative Median Voter Median Democratic Voter Median Republican Voter 8 General Election Liberal Conservative ? 2004 Battleground states -- in the 2000 election these 4 states had <7% difference of the popular vote: ? Florida (27) -- Bush by .01% (537 votes) ? Ohio (20) -- Bush by 3.51% (166,735 votes) ? Pennsylvania -- Gore by 4.17% (204,840 votes) ?Michigan -- Gore by 5.13% (217,270 votes) ? 2008 Battleground states ? 16 states were identified as ?battleground? ? CO, FL, IA, MI, MN, MO, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NC, OH, OR, PA, VA, WI Florida?s ?Butterfly ballot? Ahhh . . . Florida 2000 Election 9 2004 Something else to consider . . . ? Presidential elections were not the only state- wide elections held in 2004 ? Some states had U.S. Senate races as well ? There were 12 potentially competitive Senate races in 2004: ? Alaska, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Louisiana, Missouri, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, South Dakota, and Washington (bold indicates battleground state) The Electoral College Allocation of Electoral Votes based on the 2010 Census Total: 538; Majority Needed to Elect: 270 ? ALABAMA - 9 ? ALASKA - 3 ? ARIZONA - 11 ? ARKANSAS - 6 ? CALIFORNIA - 55 ? COLORADO - 9 ? CONNECTICUT - 7 ? DELAWARE - 3 ? DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA - 3 ? FLORIDA - 29 ? GEORGIA - 16 ? HAWAII - 4 ? IDAHO - 4 ? ILLINOIS - 20 ? INDIANA ? 11 ? IOWA - 6 ? KANSAS - 6 ? KENTUCKY - 8 ? LOUISIANA ? 8 ? MAINE - 4 ? MARYLAND - 10 ? MASSACHUSETTS ? 11 ? MICHIGAN - 16 ? MINNESOTA ? 10 ? MISSISSIPPI - 6 ? MISSOURI - 10 ? MONTANA - 3 ? NEBRASKA - 5 ? NEVADA - 6 ? NEW HAMPSHIRE - 4 ? NEW JERSEY ? 14 ? NEW MEXICO ? 5 ? NEW YORK - 29 ? NORTH CAROLINA ? 15 ? NORTH DAKOTA - 3 ? OHIO - 18 ? OKLAHOMA - 7 ? OREGON - 7 ? PENNSYLVANIA ? 20 ? RHODE ISLAND ? 4 ? SOUTH CAROLINA ? 9 ? SOUTH DAKOTA - 3 ? TENNESSEE - 11 ? TEXAS - 38 ? UTAH - 6 ? VERMONT - 3 ? VIRGINIA ? 13 ? WASHINGTON ? 12 ? WEST VIRGINIA - 5 ? WISCONSIN - 10 ? WYOMING - 3 Ohio?s 2008 Presidential Electors ? Catherine Barrett ? Barbara Tuckerman ? Wade Kapszukiewicz ? Tamela Lee ? Renee Cafaro ? Victoria Wulsin ? Craig Brown ? Jimmy Cotner ? Janet Carson ? Bruce Johnson ? Nannette Whaley ? Martha Jane Brooks ? Eugene Miller ? Fran Alberty ? Chris Redfern ? John Kostyo ? Kelly Gillis ? Charleta Tavares ? Michael Todd ? Ted Strickland 10 Electoral College (2004) ? 11 largest states: ? California 55 55 ? Texas 38 93 ? New York 29 122 ? Florida 29 151 ? Illinois 20 171 ? Pennsylvania 20 191 ? Ohio 18 209 ? Michigan 16 225 ? Georgia 16 241 ? New Jersey 14 255 ? North Carolina 15 270 Allocation of Electoral Votes based on the 2000 Census (Minus 11 largest states) Total: 538; Majority Needed to Elect: 270 ? ALABAMA - 9 ? ALASKA - 3 ? ARIZONA - 11 ? ARKANSAS - 6 ? COLORADO - 9 ? CONNECTICUT - 7 ? DELAWARE - 3 ? DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA - 3 ? HAWAII - 4 ? IDAHO - 4 ? INDIANA ? 11 ? IOWA - 6 ? KANSAS - 6 ? KENTUCKY - 8 ? LOUISIANA ? 8 ? MAINE - 4 ? MARYLAND - 10 ? MASSACHUSETTS ? 11 ? MINNESOTA ? 10 ? MISSISSIPPI - 6 ? MISSOURI - 10 ? MONTANA - 3 ? NEBRASKA - 5 ? NEVADA - 6 ? NEW HAMPSHIRE - 4 ? NEW MEXICO ? 5 ? NORTH DAKOTA - 3 ? OKLAHOMA - 7 ? OREGON - 7 ? RHODE ISLAND ? 4 ? SOUTH CAROLINA ? 9 ? SOUTH DAKOTA - 3 ? TENNESSEE - 11 ? UTAH - 6 ? VERMONT - 3 ? VIRGINIA ? 13 ? WASHINGTON ? 12 ? WEST VIRGINIA - 5 ? WISCONSIN - 10 ? WYOMING - 3 All of these states combined only total 268 electoral votes !! Nebraska?s 2008 electoral votes CD 1 McCain Charles Thone CD 2 Obama William Forsee CD 3 McCain D. Neal Smith At-Large McCain Norman Riffel At-Large McCain Patricia Dorwart ?Faithless? electors (or ?runaways?) ? 2004: An unknown elector in Minnesota Elector for Kerry (Democrat)instead cast a ballot for Senator John Edwards, Senator John Kerry's running mate ? 2000: Barbara Lett-Simmons, District of Columbia Elector for Gore (Democrat) instead cast a blank ballot ? 1988: Margaret Leach, West Virginia Elector for Dukakis (Democrat) instead voted for Lloyd Bentsen (Dukakis' running mate). Ms. Leach cast her Vice Presidential vote for Dukakis instead of Bentsen as well. Smith Charles (.3280) Election Politics