4.14.10.rtf

4.14.2010 Syllogistic Reasoning - Valid deductive conclusions necessarily follow from the premises. · Most syllogistic forms are invalid There are different ways in which we think about syllogistic reasoning questions Cognitive Constraints · Working memory limits the number of alternatives considered · Illicit conversion: misinterpreting "All A are B" to mean "All B are A" · Belief bias: humans in diverse cultures accept conclusions as valid when they fit cultural beliefs Condotional Reasoning · Affirming the antecedant (P) --> "Modes ponens" -If it is raining, I will get wet · Denying the consequent (not Q) Wason Card Selection Task The mind is used for very specific kinds of tasks Decision Making 2 different types of models for decision making · Prescriptive models -Models describing the best way to make a decision · Descriptive models -Models describing the way decisions are actually made Cognitive psychologists are interested in how people actually make decisions Classical Decision Theory Assumed decosion makers... · Knew all options available · Understood pros and cons of each option · Rationally made their final choice · Goal was to maximize value of decision Howard's Dilemma Thagard & Milgram (1995) · Classical decision theory does not work Kahneman & Tversky · Their work in economics showes that people aren't good decision-makers at all. In fact, they make repeated errors based on heuristics. Expected Utility Theory · How do we make rational kinds of bets · We typically try to make the safer bet that is going to get us some kind of pay-off, but not big win Subjective Utility Theory · Explains individual differences better than the others · Whenever we make decisions, we're trying to -Seek pleasure and avoid pain · Actual judgment of pleasure and pain is made by each decision maker (subjective) Subjective Utiliy Curve · Value (subjective utility) increases slowly for gains · Implication: Initial losses are the most painful. Very heavy losses, on the other hand are tolertated better than one might expect. -perceived value of things i'm getting is not as good if I initially have resources Satisficing · To obtain an outcome that is good enough · Term introduces by herbert A. Simon in his Models of Man 1957 -Simon noted that humans are rational but within limits (bounded rationality)