final deck 2

Geography 1112 with Box at University of Georgia

About this deck

By: Bianca Bekkers
Created: 2008-12-09
Size: 33 flashcards
Views: 37

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Stage 1 of hurricane: seeding

: a thunderstorm cluster moves west, often off the coast of Africa. Most don?t get any stronger.

easterly wave stg. 2

wiggle in winds. 85% of major Atlantic hurricanes start as easterly waves, but most waves don?t become hurricanes.

tropical depression stage 3
How many closed isobars

weak low-pressure area with sustained (constant) winds below 39 mph.
At least 1 closed isobar

tropical storm stage 4

Tropical Storm: strong low-pressure center with sustained winds between 39-73 mph. Gets a name! About 50% of tropical storms intensify further to?
CLOSED ISOBARS

stage 5 hurricane

Hurricane: intense very circular low-pressure center with sustained winds at or above 74 mph. Often develops an ?eye,? especially as it intensifies beyond minimal hurricane status.

the end

?The End?: hurricane usually either dies over land (away from warm water) or becomes part of an extratropical weather system.

What factors control the strength of a hurricane?

Ocean temperatures
(above 80�F, good for growth)

Vertical wind shear
(jet streams bad for growth, unlike thunderstorms/tornadoes)

hurricane hazzard

wind, hurricanes are low pressure areas extreem pressure gradents causes sustainted winds in the eye wall up to 200mph

dropsondes

the exact same thing as weater balloon except it takes measurements as it falls down from the plane through the hurricane.

winds of what side are the fastest of the hurricane

right front

another hurricane hazard

when a hurricane makes landfall tornadoes associated with hruricanes are usually tornadoes created by friction

gustinadoes

non supercell tornadoes that form in the right front qudrant

storm surge

High winds push ocean water ahead of the storm, causing a ?wall of water? as high as three stories

hurricane hazard

Weakening hurricanes over land can produce enormous amounts of rain, especially if they interact with mid-latitude weather systems or cross over mountains

rain water flood

kills the most people in a hurricane. as they weaken and move over land

record setting hurricane season

2005 we ran out of names fro the hurricanes so we had to use letters from the greek alphabet

hurricane watch

winds >74mph possible hurricane within 36 hours

hurricane warning

winds >74mph hurricane is24 hours away

3 steps to weather forecast

1) Data collection
2) Data analysis
3) Produce forecast (prediction)

data analysis

In U.S., it is NCEP and National Weather Service (NWS) Headquarters in Silver Spring, MD
errors are removed
data is plotted on a map and analyzed`

This type of forecasting is called numerical weather forecasting

Use computer model forecasts as basis for own forecast

climatological forecast

Forecasts based on long-term averages

persistence

Assess current conditions, assume that either these conditions will occur in the future or that a current trend will manifest itself

quanatative forecast

The ?amount? of a variable is specifically stated
Example: ?The high temperature will be 72�F with 0.5? of rain?

qualitative forecast

A categorical amount is forecasted, no numerical values
Example: ?It will not rain today. Temperatures will be below normal

probability forecast

Chance that something will occur
Usually issued with precipitation forecasts
Example: ?There is a 60% chance of rain today?

long range forecast

Long-Range forecasts
Upcoming season (90 days in advance) or more
Can only issue most likely outcomes
?Will be drier than normal?, or ?warmer than normal?
Issued by the Climate Prediction Center (CPC)

why are some forecasts bad?

Data is sparse
Only 74 upper air stations, not close enough
Observations not taken frequently enough
Computer models do not handle certain things well
Anything smaller in scale (parameterized), like thunderstorms, wind turbulence, etc.
Snow cover
Weather is changing rapidly
Forecasts are for periods longer than 3 days

why are some forecasts good?

Models are getting better and better
Computers are faster, more computations can be performed, resolution is increasing
Weather isn?t changing very rapidly
Forecasters are receiving better training
3 days or less

850mb map

analysis of air flow relative to the temperature distribution helps identify areas of low level uplift.

700mb map

useful in predicting the movement of air mass thunderstorms

500mb map

most wideley used

300 and 200mb maps

best for defining the number and posiion of rossby waves and for analysing jet stream patterns

About this deck

By: Bianca Bekkers
Created: 2008-12-09
Size: 33 flashcards
Views: 37

About StudyBlue

“I have been getting MUCH better grades on all my tests for school. Flash cards, notes, and quizzes are great on here. Thanks!”
Kathy