Lecture _12 Outline.ppt

Climate change: Direct studies Scientists measure Atmospheric gases directly http://environment.nationalgeographic.com/environment Science and Proxy Indicators Proxy indicators: ______________ that serve as substitutes for direct measurements Examples: Trapped bubbles = atmospheric composition, greenhouse gas concentration, temperature trends, snowfall, solar activity, and frequency of fires. More proxy indicators ________ beds preserve _________ and other plant remnants. __________precipitation history and fire occurrence Pack rat ________ preserve plant parts for centuries _________ reveal aspects of ocean chemistry. Science and Models of Climate Change Climate models: Current and future trends and impacts Evidence since _________ is indisputable. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) International panel of _____________ 19___ reviewed and widely accepted synthesis of scientific information on climate change IPCC: Temp increases Average surface temperatures rising since_____ Mostly in the last few ___________. At the end of the 21st century, temperatures will be ___________________than today. Global temperature change will vary _______________ temperatures will also increase Why? Storms will be: Recent Years- Temp 11 of the last 12 years rank among the twelve warmest years in the instrumental record. Average Temperature has increased 0.8 C since 1880 Even greater at northern latitudes Precipitation is changing Some regions more some _____. Droughts have become________________. Harming_____________ Soil__________ reducing___________ forest fires Heavy rains have contributed to flooding. Projected changes in precipitation High latitudes = Low and middle latitudes = Melting snow and ice Mountaintop glaciers are ___________ Glacier National Park, only _________ (1910) glaciers remain but will be gone by 2030. _________ and Greenland Icesheets melting ________________ ice shelves the size of _____________ have disintegrated. Ice melts> darker exposed> then what? Glaciers are melting rapidly 1988 1993 2000 Glaciers are melting rapidly 1988 1996 Glaciers are melting rapidly Climate Change: A variety of Ecosystems Coral reefs Bleaching Sea level rise Arctic sea ice extent Rising sea levels Glaciers and ice melt= As oceans warm = Leads to beach __________, coastal __________, and salt water in aquifers. Climate change affects organisms Organisms prefer certain habitats Global warming modifies ______________ phenomena. - - __________ shifts in the ______ of organisms Animals and plants will move where? More extinction- how much more? Climate change affects ecosystems Increased precipitation will: increase___________ and _________ Which will pollute ____________ systems. Decreased precipitation will reduce surface waters. Ecosystem ______________________ will ____________ . Climate change exerts societal impacts Forestry: Agriculture: Is climate change debatable? Fossil fuel consumtion? Public perception? Mitigation or adaptation? Mitigation: pursue _______ that _______ greenhouse gas emissions to lessen _________ of future climate change Adaptation: accept _______________ is happening and pursue strategies to ____________ its __________. We need to follow multiple strategies Most reductions can be achieved using _________________. To eliminate 15 billion tons of carbon/year by 2050: Double _________________ and ________ miles driven Maximize building ______________ Double efficiency of _________and switch to ____________ ______________ carbon from coal, hydrogen, and synfuel plants Increase _____________________ Increase ___________________________production Stop deforestation, __________________ croplands Kyoto Protocol seeks to limit emissions Mandates that, between 2008-2012, signatory nations must reduce emissions of six greenhouse gases to levels_________________ . This treaty took effect in 2005. The ______________ will not ratify the Kyoto Protocol. requires ______________ nations to reduce emissions but not ____________ industrializing nations Governments and businesses in industrialized nations feel they have more to lose ____________ from restrictions. But technologies--- Others are advancing climate change policy Mayors from __________agreed to pursue policies to ?meet or beat? Kyoto Protocol guidelines. _________ is determined to cut greenhouse gas emissions 25% by the year 2020. 10 northeastern states set up a ______________ program for carbon emissions from power plants. Cap and Trade Permit trading programs Harness the economic efficiency of the free market Polluters choose how to _________________ A cap and trade emissions trading program Each state decides _____________ to participate. Each sets ____________________ emissions. Each emissions source gets ______permit. The source can ____________ permits. Any source emitting more than its permitted amount will ______________. Carbon offsets Emissions trading programs allow participants to buy carbon offsets. Carbon offset: _________________ to enable another entity to ___________that unable to reduce oneself Popular: trying to achieve carbon-__________ where no net carbon is emitted A simple, convenient (but expensive) way to reduce emissions without changing habits Next Class More Climate Change