MexicoApril21.doc

MexicoApril21 CREATEDATE 4/21/10 11:06 AM Lopez Obrador (PRD) challenged the results in 2 ways: 1. Asked the Federal Electoral Tribunal for a national recount: FET ordered recounts of about 9 percent 2. Civil disobedience campaign: protests on the principal boulevard; traffic blocking 3. Vowed continued resistance Current Conditions: Political challenges remain: much depends on policy responses What are the policy challenges for Industrializing Nations? 1. Population growth/explosion: medical care, education, social security and welfare 2. Economic performance: industrialization v. primary goods, funding/training for industrialization, how to persuade citizens to change course 3. Political performance: ethnic/religious conflicts, regional conflicts, political challenges for greater participation and from globalization security: colonization, conflict Strategies in Industrializing nations for dealing with policy challenges: 1. Traditional allegiances: monarch, personal rule 2. Technocrats: bureaucratic-government, large government presence geared towards economic development 3. Mobilizational regimes: using religion, political ideology (eg China), or economy 4. Democratization What are the most pressing issues facing Mexico? 1. Population growth/explosion: medical care, education, social security and welfare, distribution 2. Economic performance: growth, wealth disparities, inflation, unemployment 3. Political performance: ethnic/religious conflicts, regional conflicts (e.g. riots from Chiapas), crime, political challenges fro greater participation and form globalization 4. Security: because of conflict and protests (students; the left; Chiapa rebels) Strategies for dealing with policy challenges: 1. Traditional allegiances: monarch, personal rule 2. Technocrats: bureaucratic-government, large government presence geared towards economic development 3. Mobilizational regimes: using religion, political ideology (e.g. China), or economy 4. Democratization Interest Group behaviors/access: A. protests B. Voting C. Patron-client networks to access government 1. Business: e.g. COPARMEX, CCE 2. Peasants: CNC (Confederacion Nacional Campesina) 3. Labor: CTM 4. Popular sector: white collar, merchants, etc. 5. Catholic Church 6. Solidarity committees What information to use for systematic analysis and prediction Interaction Pattern with Political Units: Pluralistic patterns Democratic Corporatist State Distancing (UK) Prediction: predicting behavior and change What pattern in Mexico? Look at the interest groups What effect on policies? Look at interaction pattern Stability or change: and where- system, process or policy Uncommon/common knowledge v systematic thinking Interest groups: many, varied, potentially overlapping What this means: 1. Either pluralistic 2. Or, interest groups access not working: which means that policies to help keep what citizens have not available Prediction: 1. Change in interest group interaction patterns: see 485-6 ? (because the people who don?t have access are going to demand change) 2. Change in system: 463-466 ? Political parties: What information to use for systematic analysis and prediction (environments are majoritarian, majority coalition and multi party) (types are comparative, military and authoritarian) What is the pattern? Prediction: predicting behavior and change What effect on policies? Look at pattern Stability or change: and where (system, process or policy) Political Parties PRD -------------------------- PRI --------------------------- PAN (Left) (centrist) (right) PRD: Partido de la Revolucion Democratica Founded in 1988 Socialist-democratic agenda Strongest support in southern state and Mexico city (labor) PRI: Partido Revolucionario Institutional Founded in 1929 Ruling party until 2000 Support falling because of rural-urban migration Strongest support in northern and southern rural states (peasants) PAN: Partido Accion Nacional Founded in 1939 Market-oriented approach, improved church-state relations, Strongest support: some northern states, center-west and central core (urban working class, middle class) What is the pattern? Parties develop policy positions to attract majority of voters Parties submit to electoral competition Organization to find out what voters want and get them involved Effects on policy: current policy challenges: 1. Economic development: poverty 2. Rule of law: stability 3. Political performance: crime, political development 4. Welfare: medical care, education, social security and welfare, distribution Important questions to consider for prediction: What are the policy challenges for Industrializing Nations? What strategies have been pursued? Hence, what recourse remain? Electoral system and parties Presidential election: every 6 years (one-term limit) Senate elections: mixed system (128 seats) 1st 2 seats from 32 districts from party-plurality elections 3rd seat assigned to 2nd party?s top candidate on party list 32 seats distributed by proportional representation on closed list result: increase representation; little chance of 1 party dominating House of Representatives: split system (500 seats) 300 single-member plurality elections 200 proportional representation , closed list party proportional result: increase representation with accountability Parties, Elections and policies 1. Party development: a. When do new parties emerge? B. When do old parties die out? C. What doe sit mean for old parties to die out? 2. Campaign strategies: e.g. financing, where to run for office, how to run for office 3. Are people keeping what they have?