*Optimality & Decision Making - Freeberg - Part 2 of 2

Fall 2009 of 5 3. Expectancy-Value Theory SHAPE \* MERGEFORMAT 3. Expectancy-Value Theory Motivation in behavior due to: Individual Needs Goals in environment and their value Individual?s expectations about reaching goals Before: Net Value ( Behavior Now: Net Value x Expectation( Behavior If you have a goal, but the value is little?won?t? predict behavior very well Where do expectancies come from? Experience Consequences of our own behavior Observations of behaviors of others Even though expectancy is a serious cognitive approach in decision making, it?s an idea that stems from condition, basic learning People vary in their tendency to approach demanding situations People vary in their outlook on things ?Achievement Situations? Generate obvious expectations about valued goals Some people: strong ?Motivation to succeed? 4. Constraints on Optimal Decision-Making Importance of Framing of Decisions Anytime you face a problem, how that problem is posed, worded can heavily influence the decision you make Tvsersky & Kahnemann (1981) study Survery of costs and benefits of treatment or theoretical disease You?re told to ?imagine you are the health care provider in an isolated village in the North Great Plains in Canada?100s miles away from hospital. You?re the one that has to make the decision. The decision boils down to the cost and benefits for the treatment of the disease affecting the village. The way the problem is presented is in terms of unit?how many people will live and die. ?live? and ?die become really important. If you don?t do anything, everyone is going to die. It?s a nasty disease, highly contagious. If you?re one half of the subjects in this study, your decision boils down to Program/Drug A vs. Program/Drug B. If you chose Program A, then you know for sure ?200 lives will be saved.? If you chose Program B, then ?1/3 probability that all 600 will be saved, which means 2/3 probability that none will be saved.? The other half of the subjects face choice between Program C and Program D. In Program C, you know ?400 people will die.? In Program D, ?1/3 none will die, 2/3 probability all die.? Significantly more people in A vs. B group chose option A, which is similar to C. Significantly more people in C vs. D group chose option D, which is similar to B. A and C are exactly the same, just different wording B and D are exactly the same, just different wording Why people choosing sure option in one case and uncertain option in other case? THE WORDING! A vs. B?SAVE; C vs. D?DIE Importance of Framing?Wording Matters! Importance of cognitive availability Scenario mother driving son to a baseball game. They get in a bad car mom dies, but the boy goes to the hospital. The first nurse to arrive says ?I can?t deal with this b/c this boy is my son!? What comes to mind is stereotype!?nurses are women?not true No decision-making strategy will let us choose a response we don?t consider Cliché of ?thinking outside the box?