Geo August 26 How has population changed over time? Economic regimes effect population regimes Basic Numbers crude birth rate b/p * 1000 50 (Niger) to 7.3 (Hong Kong) Crude death rate d/p *1000 22 (Sierra Leone) to 1.4 (UAE) rate of natural increase Think about the graphic Why was there so little change over such a long period of time? Hunter gatherer less people, less disease, different diets, less children, men and women in two different places, longer life Agricultural Revolution more food, more people, large support for families, more people = more disease Modern Age more available medicines/science, planning and sanitation, clean water sources, growth of health consciousness, how many kids people want, individual choices come into play Population Change Now Population is still growing, but it is growing at a decreasing rate. Eastern Europe, Russia- no increase- housing cost, cost of raising children Demographic Transition Population paradigms Thomas Malthus (1766-1834) Thought that the world was overpopulated in his time. Minister, political economist, demographer Food is necessary for humans. The food supply can only grow arithmetically The passion between the sexes is constant therefore the tendency of populations is to grow geometrically The only acceptable pre-emptive measure if population control available is moral restraint If people do not exercise moral restraint disease, war and famine will limit population growth. Poor, uneducated people in particular cannot be expected to exercise moral restraint. Problem: an increasing population and a fixed resource base. The natural tendency if the population is to increase and then crash Giving money to the poor is in fact inhumane Overpopulation breeds poverty Problems: Understanding technology. As a result Malthus did not anticipate the existence of birth control nor the ability to get increasing yields out of a fixed amount of land. Assumes overpopulation breeds population when in fact it could be argued to be the other way around. Demographic Transition Model
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