Session 21 4/14

4/14/09 Session 21: War Termination and Duration (Blainey 13 & 14; Wagner p 143-54) War Duration How Wars Work End when expectation of benefits match, since war occurs over disagreements Disagreement over who s stronger Disagreement over who can take more punishment, impose more cost on the other Start to observe of who is winning in the beginning, start to expect the outcome/total cost of the war ( may choose to end now Assumption: cannot fake battle outcomes Can misrepresent power and demands, but cannot fake a battle outcome Decisive Battles Going to gain more information than a draw War duration reveals a lot of information Not many decisive battles (in history) to learn about the distribution of power Obstacles to termination Calendar of War Seasonal effects on campaigning; cannot fight in certain seasons (winter, spring rain, etc.) Elite Armies vs. Massive Armies Mass Army More loyal than mercenaries Can overwhelm the enemy if they have fewer numbers More complicated environment for war Have to ?size up? more troops Elite Army Expensive, small, capital based Avoid battle because do not want to waste units, elites will also be fighting Geography A lot space makes it difficult to encounter enemy Mountains can give advantage (300) Ocean All depends on tactics Naval campaigns can avoid decisive engagements Two Country Wars Most wars fought b/t two countries Most bloody; more decisive victories, but generally shorter due to this Easier to determine who will lose early on Long Wars More States (belligerents), longer wars Extra-state wars States abroad fighting non-state groups or actors Difficult to have a decisive victory Colonial Wars are frequently insulated Outside of the interest of other nations Far away (no colonial wars on the border of Europe) Not fighting to defend your own territory Can be longer If there is political opposition, cut down on reinforcements Harder to achieve a decisive outcome Exam Question What is the one big thing that Blainey says that stands in the way of ending a war? Obstacles to decisive victories Iraq War: When there were to states (in the beginning); US army was very swift, very decisive and quick US vs. amalgamation of guerilla groups Two differently equipped military groups How do you fight against guerilla tactics, difficult to determine who is the enemy War of inflicting costs Rationalist Explanations for War Private Information (misperceptions of) Commitment Problems