Super Tuesday ? Importance of Party and Momentum

Political Science 102 with Bimes at University of California - Berkeley

About this deck

By: HJ Kwon
Created: 2008-10-02
Size: 24 flashcards
Views: 0

About StudyBlue

STUDYBLUE makes things that make you better at school. Things like online flashcards with photos and audio. Things like personalized quizzes and friendly reminders about when (and what) to study next. Think of it as a digital backpack™: access to all of your study materials online and on your phone. STUDYBLUE exists to make studying efficient and effective for every student, for free. Join us.

“Simply amazing. The flash cards are smooth, there are many different types of studying tools, and there is a great search engine. I praise you on the awesomeness.”
Dennis

Sign up (free) to study this.

- Momentum happens when voters don?t know much about the candidate.
(4 answers)

Carter is a classic casebook about the example of momentum.
With detailed knowledge about the candidates, momentum is difficult to create.
Momentum doesn?t really matter on issues, but rather on cue-taking.
A lot of people don?t vote for their self-interests.

Issue activists take over the party after the 1960 race?
(1 answer)

Public opinion matters a lot, giving foundation for the momentum to play a big role.

Some formal changes that party leaders introduced the system to regain control:
(4 answers)

Changes that party leaders made to the nomination system to ensure that extremists didn?t get the lay for nomination:
(1) Super Tuesday (1984/1988) ? started out with a group of southern states. First, we?ll have Iowa and New Hampshire, and then we?ll make the candidates go south. This may have a moderating tendency so that the candidate wouldn?t be like McGovern.
(2) Super Delegates ? they?re not pledged to a particular candidate. They were usually party leaders, so it was a way to introduce more influence of the party leaders into the nomination process. In many cases of close elections, they hoped that these super delegates would cast the tipping vote.
(3) Front-loading ? make sure that candidate who has a lot of money and is the establishment candidate can sew up the race quickly.

A lot of people don?t vote for their self-interests.
(1 answer)

John Edwards was one of the few candidates who addressed poverty, but he did not necessarily attract votes of the poor.

(3) Front-loading ? make sure that candidate who has a lot of money and is the establishment candidate can sew up the race quickly.
(5 answers)

But this has been a very contentious issue.
More and more states are keep moving their primary dates over. Even today?s election displays that primary calendar is becoming compact because each states wants to have more say in the nomination. So over time, states are gradually moving their dates forward. ? gradual process.
States often think it?s unfair that Iowa and New Hampshire get special treatment. They constantly put pressure on the Democratic convention to change this rule.
Florida and Michigan are getting punished for moving their primaries too early. Their delegates don?t count.
Candidates with big war chests can benefit, because they can have the funds to run such campaigns in the beginning.

- Conventional Wisdom on Affects of the McGovern-Fraser Theory and riots at Chicago:
(4 answers)

Issue activists take over the party after the 1960 race?
The party network is severely weakened after this reform.
Candidates begin to follow outside strategies.
Outsiders, extremist strategies (very liberal positions for Democratic primary)

Professor Bimes finds two problems with this theory:
(4 answers)

(1) Party members weren?t able to coordinate during this invisible primary of 2008 race.
(2) It seems to have been more bottom-up than elite-driven in this primary. o Is the 2008 just lousy luck?
Maybe nothing has significantly changed in this nomination. Maybe it?s just an anomaly. Maybe next election will go back to the general trend.
Or, maybe the fact that the online campaign has so much effect disallows party members to control the nominations any longer ? because of the technological changes that has taken place.

Party network is necessary to win the nominations, because they?re the connection to the resources
(2 answers)

Be able to get the endorsement of high political elites and ask them to help fundraising, etc.
Celebrity endorsements are interesting, but they still aren?t part of this party network. Karol is talking about people that are politically active. You need those who were continuously involved with elections.

- Problems with 2004
(4 answers)

Anti-war movement that got behind Howard Dean
Party network is necessary to win the nominations, because they?re the connection to the resources
Hence for David Karol, this invisible primary before the primary is important.
Professor Bimes finds two problems with this theory:

(2) Super Delegates ? they?re not pledged to a particular candidate. They were usually party leaders, so it was a way to introduce more influence of the party leaders into the nomination process. In many cases of close elections, they hoped that these super delegates would cast the tipping vote.
(2 answers)

These delegates usually determined who they wanted to vote for beforehand.
But this also, didn?t really come about too well. o But mainly through informal networks that the party has adapted to.

- Key buzz words that would be associated with Polsby?s theory:
(1 answer)

Momentum ? blog that summarizes Larry Bartel?s work

(1) Super Tuesday (1984/1988) ? started out with a group of southern states. First, we?ll have Iowa and New Hampshire, and then we?ll make the candidates go south. This may have a moderating tendency so that the candidate wouldn?t be like McGovern.
(1 answer)

But Jesse Jackson actually ends up doing better than his more moderate opponent in 1988. So this mechanisms didn?t really work out that well.

Momentum doesn?t really matter on issues, but rather on cue-taking.
(4 answers)

If a certain candidate was voted in Iowa, this serves as a certain cue that may influence your vote.
More about vitality, rather than issues. ? Nobody wants to vote for a loser.
Even in this nomination case, it is not so much based on issues, but rather on personality, electability in the general election, and so forth.
Because differences between Clinton and Obama are so small, a lot of the times these differences get lost within the electorate.

- Professor finds this explanation not interesting enough of a theory compared to that of Polsby or Karol. Plus, they are not very successful.
(2 answers)

Think about sampling accuracy of polls, etc.
The polls right before the election is doubtful as to the causal mechanisms that might be at play so close to the voting day.

- They give 1972 and 1976. But starting in 1980, the system becomes very different: the party adapts to the rules.
(1 answer)

Some formal changes that party leaders introduced the system to regain control:

Celebrity endorsements are interesting, but they still aren?t part of this party network. Karol is talking about people that are politically active. You need those who were continuously involved with elections.
(1 answer)

Oprah supporting Obama has great media coverage.

Outsiders, extremist strategies (very liberal positions for Democratic primary)
(1 answer)

Must appeal to very liberal delegates in the primary, whereas before, the party network was relatively moderate.

- Issues and influence of polls ? good predictor of nomination?
(2 answers)

Poll numbers are not a bad record of success, but there are a couple of notable exceptions.
Election 2008: On the last poll before the Iowa caucus, Hilary Clinton would clearly be the leader and on the Republican side, it would be Giuliani.

Even in this nomination case, it is not so much based on issues, but rather on personality, electability in the general election, and so forth.
(2 answers)

Clinton has a mandate on universal healthcare.
Obama supports universal healthcare but do not mandate it. o Primarily personality-driven and viability of the candidate.

States often think it?s unfair that Iowa and New Hampshire get special treatment. They constantly put pressure on the Democratic convention to change this rule.
(2 answers)

Democratic defense is that small states like Iowa and New Hampshire require less money to campaign and still give an effect of a preliminary display on model citizen voting of the United States.
California, for example, would require immense amount of money to be a place to campaign for the first primary.

The party network is severely weakened after this reform.
(1 answer)

Richard Daly doesn?t even get seated on the 1972 National Convention. Remember that he used to control the convention in the 1968 election.

Anti-war movement that got behind Howard Dean
(2 answers)

As his numbers rise in the polls, there were elites jumping in the bandwagon with Howard Dean because he looked like the next Democratic candidate.
Seems problematic because it doesn?t seem like a voter-run process, but an elite-run process. - Problems with 2008

- Both Polsby and Mayer are candidate-centered; instead, Mayer places emphasis on polls and money. - Issues and influence of money ? good predictor of nomination?
(4 answers)

But money is not as good as polls in saying something about the candidacy.
Romney has a lot of money, but he doesn?t really get up on that bar.
Some people worry about John McCain not having much money.
But it?s often the case that the person with the most money doesn?t win the nomination.

Momentum ? blog that summarizes Larry Bartel?s work
(4 answers)

Cue-taking
Contagion
Inevitability
Utility from voting for the winner, etc.

About this deck

By: HJ Kwon
Created: 2008-10-02
Size: 24 flashcards
Views: 0

About StudyBlue

“Simply amazing. The flash cards are smooth, there are many different types of studying tools, and there is a great search engine. I praise you on the awesomeness.”
Dennis