Chapter 12 Capital Budgeting: Decision Criteria Topics Overview and “vocabulary” Methods Payback, discounted payback NPV IRR, MIRR Profitability Index Unequal lives Economic life What is capital budgeting? Analysis of potential projects. Long-term decisions; involve large expenditures. Very important to firm’s future. Steps in Capital Budgeting Estimate cash flows (inflows & outflows). Assess risk of cash flows. Determine r = WACC for project. Evaluate cash flows. Independent versus Mutually Exclusive Projects Projects are: independent, if the cash flows of one are unaffected by the acceptance of the other. mutually exclusive, if the cash flows of one can be adversely impacted by the acceptance of the other. What is the payback period? The number of years required to recover a project’s cost, or how long does it take to get the business’s money back? Payback for Franchise L (Long: Most CFs in out years) 10 80 60 0 1 2 3 -100 = CFt Cumulative -100 -90 -30 50 PaybackL 2 + 30/80 = 2.375 years 0 100 2.4 Franchise S (Short: CFs come quickly) 70 20 50 0 1 2 3 -100 CFt Cumulative -100 -30 20 40 PaybackS 1 + 30/50 = 1.6 years 100 0 1.6 = Strengths and Weaknesses of Payback Strengths: Provides an indication of a project’s risk and liquidity. Easy to calculate and understand. Weaknesses: Ignores the TVM. Ignores CFs occurring after the payback period. Discounted Payback: Uses discounted rather than raw CFs. 10 80 60 0 1 2 3 CFt Cumulative -100 -90.91 -41.32 18.79 Discounted payback 2 + 41.32/60.11 = 2.7 yrs PVCFt -100 -100 10% 9.09 49.59 60.11 = Recover invest. + cap. costs in 2.7 yrs. NPV: Sum of the PVs of all cash flows. Cost often is CF0 and is negative. NPV = ∑ n t = 0 CFt (1 + r)t . NPV = ∑ n t = 1 CFt (1 + r)t . - CF0 . What’s Franchise L’s NPV? 10 80 60 0 1 2 3 10% L’s CFs: -100.00 9.09 49.59 60.11 18.79 = NPVL NPVS = $19.98. Calculator Solution: Enter values in CFLO register for L. -100 10 60 80 10 CF0 CF1 NPV CF2 CF3 I = 18.78 = NPVL Rationale for the NPV Method NPV = PV inflows – Cost This is net gain in wealth, so accept project if NPV > 0. Choose between mutually exclusive projects on basis of higher NPV. Adds most value. Using NPV method, which franchise(s) should be accepted? If Franchise S and L are mutually exclusive, accept S because NPVs > NPVL . If S & L are independent, accept both; NPV > 0. Internal Rate of Return: IRR 0 1 2 3 CF0 CF1 CF2 CF3 Cost Inflows IRR is the discount rate that forces PV inflows = cost. This is the same as forcing NPV = 0. NPV: Enter r, solve for NPV. IRR: Enter NPV = 0, solve for IRR. = NPV ∑ n t = 0 CFt (1 + r)t . = 0 ∑ n t = 0 CFt (1 + IRR)t . What’s Franchise L’s IRR? 10 80 60 0 1 2 3 IRR = ? -100.00 PV3 PV2 PV1 0 = NPV Enter CFs in CFLO, then press IRR: IRRL = 18.13%. IRRS = 23.56%. Find IRR if CFs are constant: 40 40 40 0 1 2 3 -100 Or, with CFLO, enter CFs and press IRR = 9.70%. 3 -100 40 0 9.70% N I/YR PV PMT FV INPUTS OUTPUT Rationale for the IRR Method If IRR > WACC, then the project’s rate of return is greater than its cost-- some return is left over to boost stockholders’ returns. Example: WACC = 10%, IRR = 15%. So this project adds extra return to shareholders. Decisions on Projects S and L per IRR If S and L are independent, accept both: IRRS > r and IRRL > r. If S and L are mutually exclusive, accept S because IRRS > IRRL . Construct NPV Profiles Enter CFs in CFLO and find NPVL and NPVS at different discount rates: 5 (4) 20 12 7 15 20 19 10 29 33 5 40 50 0 NPVS NPVL r NPV Profile IRRL = 18.1% IRRS = 23.6% Crossover Point = 8.7% S L NPV and IRR: No conflict for independent projects. r > IRR and NPV < 0. Reject. NPV ($) r (%) IRR IRR > r and NPV > 0 Accept. Mutually Exclusive Projects 8.7 NPV % IRRS IRRL L S r < 8.7: NPVL> NPVS , IRRS > IRRL CONFLICT r > 8.7: NPVS> NPVL , IRRS > IRRL NO CONFLICT To Find the Crossover Rate Find cash flow differences between the projects. See data at beginning of the case. Enter these differences in CFLO register, then press IRR. Crossover rate = 8.68%, rounded to 8.7%. Can subtract S from L or vice versa, but easier to have first CF negative. If profiles don’t cross, one project dominates the other. Two Reasons NPV Profiles Cross Size (scale) differences. Smaller project frees up funds at t = 0 for investment. The higher the opportunity cost, the more valuable these funds, so high r favors small projects. Timing differences. Project with faster payback provides more CF in early years for reinvestment. If r is high, early CF especially good, NPVS > NPVL. Reinvestment Rate Assumptions NPV assumes reinvest at r (opportunity cost of capital). IRR assumes reinvest at IRR. Reinvest at opportunity cost, r, is more realistic, so NPV method is best. NPV should be used to choose between mutually exclusive projects. Modified Internal Rate of Return (MIRR) MIRR is the discount rate which causes the PV of a project’s terminal value (TV) to equal the PV of costs. TV is found by compounding inflows at WACC. Thus, MIRR assumes cash inflows are reinvested at WACC. MIRR for Franchise L: First, find PV and TV (r = 10%) 10.0 80.0 60.0 0 1 2 3 10% 66.0 12.1 158.1 -100.0 10% 10% TV inflows -100.0 PV outflows Second, find discount rate that equates PV and TV MIRR = 16.5% 158.1 0 1 2 3 -100.0 TV inflows PV outflows MIRRL = 16.5% $100 = $158.1 (1+MIRRL)3 To find TV with 10B: Step 1, find PV of Inflows First, enter cash inflows in CFLO register: CF0 = 0, CF1 = 10, CF2 = 60, CF3 = 80 Second, enter I = 10. Third, find PV of inflows: Press NPV = 118.78 Step 2, find TV of inflows. Enter PV = -118.78, N = 3, I = 10, PMT = 0. Press FV = 158.10 = FV of inflows. Step 3, find PV of outflows. For this problem, there is only one outflow, CF0 = -100, so the PV of outflows is -100. For other problems there may be negative cash flows for several years, and you must find the present value for all negative cash flows. Step 4, find “IRR” of TV of inflows and PV of outflows. Enter FV = 158.10, PV = -100, PMT = 0, N = 3. Press I = 16.50% = MIRR. Why use MIRR versus IRR? MIRR correctly assumes reinvestment at opportunity cost = WACC. MIRR also avoids the problem of multiple IRRs. Managers like rate of return comparisons, and MIRR is better for this than IRR. Normal vs. Nonnormal Cash Flows Normal Cash Flow Project: Cost (negative CF) followed by a series of positive cash inflows. One change of signs. Nonnormal Cash Flow Project: Two or more changes of signs. Most common: Cost (negative CF), then string of positive CFs, then cost to close project. For example, nuclear power plant or strip mine. Inflow (+) or Outflow (-) in Year NN - + - + + - N - - - + + + N + + + - - - NN - + + + + - N + + + + + - NN N 5 4 3 2 1 0 Pavilion Project: NPV and IRR? 5,000 -5,000 0 1 2 r = 10% -800 Enter CFs in CFLO, enter I = 10. NPV = -386.78 IRR = ERROR. Why? Nonnormal CFs--two sign changes, two IRRs. NPV Profile 450 -800 0 400 100 IRR2 = 400% IRR1 = 25% r NPV Logic of Multiple IRRs At very low discount rates, the PV of CF2 is large & negative, so NPV < 0. At very high discount rates, the PV of both CF1 and CF2 are low, so CF0 dominates and again NPV < 0. In between, the discount rate hits CF2 harder than CF1, so NPV > 0. Result: 2 IRRs. Finding Multiple IRRs with Calculator 1. Enter CFs as before. 2. Enter a “guess” as to IRR by storing the guess. Try 10%: 10 STO IRR = 25% = lower IRR (See next slide for upper IRR) Finding Upper IRR with Calculator Now guess large IRR, say, 200: 200 STO IRR = 400% = upper IRR When there are nonnormal CFs and more than one IRR, use MIRR: 0 1 2 -800,000 5,000,000 -5,000,000 PV outflows @ 10% = -4,932,231.40. TV inflows @ 10% = 5,500,000.00. MIRR = 5.6% Accept Project P? NO. Reject because MIRR = 5.6% < r = 10%. Also, if MIRR < r, NPV will be negative: NPV = -$386,777. Profitability Index The profitability index (PI) is the present value of future cash flows divided by the initial cost. It measures the “bang for the buck.” Franchise L’s PV of Future Cash Flows 10 80 60 0 1 2 3 10% Project L: 9.09 49.59 60.11 118.79 Franchise L’s Profitability Index PIL = PV future CF Initial Cost $118.79 = PIL = 1.1879 $100 PIS = 1.1998 S and L are mutually exclusive and will be repeated. r = 10%. 0 1 2 3 4 Project S: (100) Project L: (100) 60 33.5 60 33.5 33.5 33.5 NPVL > NPVS. But is L better? 6,190 4,132 NPV 10 10 I 4 2 NJ 33,500 60,000 CF1 -100,000 -100,000 CF0 L S Put Projects on Common Basis Note that Project S could be repeated after 2 years to generate additional profits. Use replacement chain to put on common life. Note: equivalent annual annuity analysis is alternative method, shown in Tool Kit and Web Extension. Replacement Chain Approach (000s). Franchise S with Replication: NPV = $7,547. 0 1 2 3 4 Franchise S: (100) (100) 60 60 60 (100) (40) 60 60 60 60 Or, use NPVs: Compare to Franchise L NPV = $6,190. 0 1 2 3 4 4,132 3,415 7,547 4,132 10% Suppose cost to repeat S in two years rises to $105,000. NPVS = $3,415 < NPVL = $6,190. Now choose L. 0 1 2 3 4 Franchise S: (100) 60 60 (105) (45) 60 60 Economic Life versus Physical Life Consider another project with a 3-year life. If terminated prior to Year 3, the machinery will have positive salvage value. Should you always operate for the full physical life? See next slide for cash flows. Economic Life versus Physical Life (Continued) 0 1,750 3 2,000 2,000 2 3,100 2,100 1 $5000 ($5000) 0 Salvage Value CF Year CFs Under Each Alternative (000s) 5.2 (5) 3. Terminate 1 year 4 2.1 (5) 2. Terminate 2 years 1.75 2 2.1 (5) 1. No termination 3 2 1 0 NPVs under Alternative Lives (Cost of capital = 10%) NPV(3) = -$123. NPV(2) = $215. NPV(1) = -$273. Conclusions The project is acceptable only if operated for 2 years. A project’s engineering life does not always equal its economic life. Choosing the Optimal Capital Budget Finance theory says to accept all positive NPV projects. Two problems can occur when there is not enough internally generated cash to fund all positive NPV projects: An increasing marginal cost of capital. Capital rationing Increasing Marginal Cost of Capital Externally raised capital can have large flotation costs, which increase the cost of capital. Investors often perceive large capital budgets as being risky, which drives up the cost of capital. (More...) If external funds will be raised, then the NPV of all projects should be estimated using this higher marginal cost of capital. Capital Rationing Capital rationing occurs when a company chooses not to fund all positive NPV projects. The company typically sets an upper limit on the total amount of capital expenditures that it will make in the upcoming year. (More...) Reason: Companies want to avoid the direct costs (i.e., flotation costs) and the indirect costs of issuing new capital. Solution: Increase the cost of capital by enough to reflect all of these costs, and then accept all projects that still have a positive NPV with the higher cost of capital. (More...) Reason: Companies don’t have enough managerial, marketing, or engineering staff to implement all positive NPV projects. Solution: Use linear programming to maximize NPV subject to not exceeding the constraints on staffing. (More...) Reason: Companies believe that the project’s managers forecast unreasonably high cash flow estimates, so companies “filter” out the worst projects by limiting the total amount of projects that can be accepted. Solution: Implement a post-audit process and tie the managers’ compensation to the subsequent performance of the project.