BARDACH PART ONE 1. Define the Problem Helpful to think in terms of excess/deficit Evaluate the problem- can it be considered a public issue (ex. market failure, discrimination, failure of government or other public systems) Use ?issue rhetoric?- establish context Quantify the problem if possible Diagnose the conditions that cause the problems Seek opportunities, not just solutions (ex. research, exchange, multi-functioning policies, utilizing nontraditional actors or systems)Problems to avoid Defining the solution into the problem/creating too narrow a definition Accepting causation too easilyBe prepared to go through this process multiple times 2. Gather evidence Data- facts Information- data with meaning Evidence- information affecting important beliefs. Important for three reasons: Assess nature and extent of problem Assess features of policy situation Assess similar situations in past/other areas Determine value of evidence- would an educated guess be more effective? Review literature, existing policies, analogies Practical: start early, touch base with critics, establish credibility with research subjects (sometimes acting as a broker), consider all points of view 3. Construct the Alternatives Be comprehensive, and leave the status quo as one option, with natural change (political, budgets, demographics, employment, etc) Use model/infrastructure available- market, production, evolutionary Conceptualize, simplify, condense, reject some Usually you use preexisting policy options- if you have to design: Make a rough design and accept input from many (opposing) viewpoints Fit into two categories- case management (considered here), or collectivity 4. Set criteria Criteria evaluate outcomes, not alternatives Common criteria include: Efficiency- maximize public interest; greatest net benefit Not very class-equal- considers willingness to pay Depends upon public interest Cost-effectiveness analysis- amount, type of outcomes Cost-benefit analysis- evaluates outcomes on specific criteria- usually money CE analysis simplifies discussion, assumes fixed resources etc Equality, justice, fairness Freedom, community, ?process values?- individual inclusion in process Evaluating conflicting criteria- either government or analysts prioritize Practical criteria- legality, rights-based, political acceptability, robustness, improvability Determine whether criteria must be maximized, minimally met, etc 5. Project the Outcomes Three psychological difficulties: Placing overconfidence in predictions Hard to be realistic Can?t predict other factors in future Predict magnitude of outcome if possible Policy has burden of justification, not burden of proof: 1. Consider minimum acceptable level of effectiveness 2. What model would meet this level of effectiveness? 3. How well will this model realistically be implemented? 4. Estimate probability of failure and consider whether it is worth the risk Break-even analysis- at what point do we agree to accept a certain alternative? Sensitivity analysis- which uncertainties are most important, the ?deal breakers?? Protection against optimism- Scenario writing Negative side effects- moral hazard, overregulation Emergent features problem- other actors adapt your policy change in unexpected ways Outcomes matrix- altneratives down rows, criteria across columns 6. Consider trade-offs Establish commensurability across criteria- money works well Most common trade-off is between funding and services/goods provided Break-even analysis- is the trade-off worth it? 7. Decide on an alternative Use ?twenty dollar bill test?- why isn?t it happening already? Find a plausible way to present the policy to the audience 8. Tell the story Gauge the audience- ?Grandma Bessie test?- can you simplify/shorten it? Consider medium to use, develop a narrative flow Pitfalls1. Following 8 steps too closely2. Compulsive qualifying3. Showing off all work4. Listing without explaining5. Not starting with most important points6. Inflating the style FormattingTables, references, memos, press releases- follow appropriate conventions
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