Something happens before something in order to have caused iti. Something cannot cause an event that preceded itii. Time 1. Just because something occurs after an event does not mean one caused the other1) You must establish a relationship between to events to create causality2) Post hoc ergo propter hoci. Homer Simpson remarking, "No Bears around here, I guess the bear patrol must be working." a) There is always a concern that something else is causing the thing we are observing b) Spurious relationships can be established1) Correlation does not equal causation!2) Spuriousii. Correlation2. Classic Examples of Casual Inferences For Example Vote share for the Incumbent party is correlated to the economy's performance. This is the beginning of your analysisa. What do we already know? (Or think we know)b. These should be a simple mechanism to hold something constantc. Assumptions1. Logic and Reason2. Conclusions3. This is a casual statement. It is unsubstantiated at this point so it is a theory. For Example You don?t have to have complete information to behave rationally, fyi Assumption: People behave rationally Casual Inferences Wednesday, January 21, 2009 10:14 AM PSCI3041 - The American Congress Page 1
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