Population and Migration Chapter 3_Pt 2 Population Definitions Rate: the frequency of occurrence of an event during a specified time period Ex: marriage rate = # marriages performed/1000 people Crude Birth Rate (a.k.a. ?birth rate?) Annual # of live births per 1000 population Doesn?t look at composition/characteristics of the population Ex: a country with pop. 2,000,000 and 40,000 live births a year: 40,000/2,000,000 = 20/1000 What affects the birth rate of a country? Age and sex structure of the population Customs & family size expectations Population policies National birth rates vary greatly Europe has relatively low birth rate Parts of Africa, Asia, & Latin America have relatively high birth rates Birth rates = subject to change Industrialization, urbanization, etc Maturing populations Restrictive family planning regulations (ex: China, Singapore until mid-1980s) Religious & political beliefs Roman Catholicism & Islam (forbid use of contraceptives) Total Fertility Rate: the average number of children that would be born to each woman during her childbearing years (15-49) TFR of 2.1-2.3 = population maintenance Replacement Rate Worldwide TFR (1965): 5.0 Worldwide TFR (mid-80s): 3.7 Worldwide TFR (2003): 2.8 Since 1960, TFR in developing countries has dropped from 6.0+ to around 3.0 today Some countries with very large populations now have fairly low TFRs China, India (on its way) Doubling Time Doubling Time ? the number of years it takes a population to double in size Lower the number, the faster the growth rate A country with a 1% rate of natural increase would double in about 70 years Natural Increase ? surplus of births over deaths Crude Death Rate: (a.k.a. ?mortality rate?) Number of deaths per year per 1000 population Things that affect the CDR: Wars Development of medicines, vaccinations, & pesticides Improved sanitation and drinking water Death and Mortality Rates Natural Decrease ? surplus of deaths over births Life expectancy ? average number of years a newborn infant can expect to live Infant mortality rates - # of infant deaths (less than 1 year) per 1,000 births Thomas Malthus Economist and Theologian in England 1766 - 1834 Wrote ?An Essay on the Principals of Populations? Malthusian Theory Human populations will increase at faster rates than food supplies War, famine, and disease will curb growth Carrying Capacity ? how much population can be held given present resources Theory did not take into consideration new technology or resources Malthusian Theory Demographic Transition Model: model of the effect of economic development on population growth Demographic Transition Model developed to explain Eurpoean population growth change Stage 1: high birth rates; high, fluctuating death rates Stage 2: high birth rates; falling mortality rates, population increases Stage 3: birth rates decline to level of death rates; population growth declines Stage 4: stable population size; population is larger than at the start of the cycle Demographic Transition Theory The transition from a stable population based on high birth and death rates to one based on low birth and death rates progresses in clearly defined stages. Migration Migration ? movement of people from one location to another Migration Can: Expand resource base Brain Drain ? the migration of highly educated workers from developing countries to developed countries Increase or decrease population bases Stimulate cultural exchanges Emigration: the act of leaving one country or region to settle in another Immigration: the act of coming to a new country, region, or environment, esp. in order to settle there Why Do People Migrate? Push/Pull Logic ? people move from one location to another because they consider the new location to be more favorable than the old location Push Factors Pull Factors Poor Local Economy Good Local Economy Poor Cultural or Political Climate Improved Personal Growth Options Limited Personal, Family, Preferable Environment or Career Prospects (Climate, Schools, Housing) Disasters (floods, earthquakes) Other Family Members The Demographic Equation Demographic Equation: a mathematical equation that takes into consideration both natural population change and net migration Natural population change: difference between births & deaths Net migration: difference between in-migration & out-migration Useful for considering population change in a country or region Globally, natural change is the only factor International Migration ? Movement across country borders (implying a degree of permanence). Internal Migration - Movement within a single country?s borders (implying a degree of permanence). Types of Migration Forced Migration Voluntary Migration Forced Migration Forced Migration ? migration in which people have little or no alternative to move Usually based on political circumstances Slavery an example Political refugees International or Internal Trail of tears Internal forced migration The Indian Removal act of 1830 Refugee-sending Countries War is certainly the most compelling factor in forcing refugee migration. Shown are the sending countries, those whose internal situations propelled people to leave. Voluntary Migration Voluntary Migration ? migration which people decide to move or stay on their own accord International or Internal Kinds of Voluntary Migration Step Migration ? When a migrant follows a path of a series of stages, or steps toward a final destination. * intervening opportunity ?at one of the steps along the path, pull factors encourage the migrant to settle there. Chain Migration ? When a migrant communicates to family and friends at home, encouraging further migration along the same path, along kinship links. International Voluntary Migration Guest workers ? migrants whom a country allows in to fill a labor need, assuming the workers will go ?home? once the labor need subsides. - have short term work visas - send remittances to home country Global Voluntary Migration The map illustrates very complex flows of people across borders who have migrated by choice. (1999) Regional origins of immigrants to the united states, selelcted years Immigrants in thousands Other, europe, asia, canada, latin america Percentage of us population growth from migration, 1900-1999 1900-1909 ? 43.8% 1910-1919 ? 23.7% 1920-1929 ? 34% Voluntary Internal Migration United States : 3 Waves Colonization and Re-settlement Eastern Seaboard to interior of country Disregard for British restrictions on expansion Rural to Urban Migration 1860- 1920, increased industrialization Voluntary Internal Migration U.S. Internal Migration, Cont. 2. Migration of African Americans from rural South Migrated to cities in the North, South, and West 1940s-1970s Push Factors: Mechanization of cotton picking, poor economic conditions associated with tenet farming Pull Factors: Manufacturing jobs available due to defense products in WWII and mass consumption after WWII Voluntary African-American migrations Blacks moved to industrial belt (i.e., Chicago, New York, Detroit) and Los Angeles during world wars (labor shortages) U.S. Internal Migration, Cont. 3. Decline of Rustbelt belt and the rise of the Sunbelt A couple decades past Post WWII Still continuing today More families moving from eastern-mid west states to the West and South Suburbanization: population growth on the fringes of large metropolitan areas Intraregional Migrations in U.S. U.S. population has been moving out of the city centers to the suburbs U.S. intraregional migration during 1990s. Developed Countries: suburbanization automobiles and roads ?American Dream? better services counterurbanization idyllic settings cost of land for retirement slow pace, yet high tech connections to services and markets Governments Place Legal Restrictions on Migration Immigration laws ? laws that restrict or allow migration of certain groups into a country. Quotas limit the number of migrants from each region into a country. A country uses selective immigration to bar people with certain backgrounds from entering. Post ? September 11 Countries form which asylum seekers are automatically detained by the US government, 2004 Middle eastern countries Indonesia
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