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an argument that proceeds from the knowledge of a selected sample to some claim about the whole group.
I have met 200 Norman residents and each one has been a Democrat. Therefore, all Norman residents are Democrats.
An informal fallacy that occurs when a general conclusion is drawn from atypical specific cases.
If the population of Norman were 1 million, then a sample size of 200 would not be large enough. If the sample consisted of only University of Oklahoma tenured professors, then the sample would not be unbiased
The probability of event A is given by the number of observed A outcomes divided by the total number of observed outcomes.
When a person makes a generalization or relatice frequency judgment based on the ease with which examples can be recalled from memory.
Question: Are there more Democrats than Republicans in Norman, OK?
In order to answer this question fairl rapidly, one must construct a sample from memory. In most cases, the sample will consist of people in Norman they are most familiar with; family members, current professors, friends.
sometime the availability heuristic gives us the right result, but it is not representative of the entire population. Here is are some examples of it giving us the wrong answer:
There are more words with "r" as a thrd letter than words with "r" as a first letter.
More people die from suicides than by murder each year.
The relatice frequency of being killed by a terrorist is greater than one in a million.
When a person concludes that x is more likely to be a member of category A rather than category B because x resembles a typical member of A. The fact that x seems to be more typical of A rather than B leas one to conclude that it is more likely that x is A rather than B.
Ex: suppose Mike is 6'6" in height and weights 250lbs. (mostly muscle), is highly aggressive, and lettered in two sports in college. Is it more likely thatmike is a banker or a pro football player? The answer is banker.
When a person claims that the likelihood of a conjunction is grater than the likelihood of one of the conjuncts alone.
It is a mistake to say that it is more likely that x is A and B than simply just A.
Occurs when a person tends to look for or remember evidence that supports a belief he or she already ha. This may also occur when a person disregards or overlooks evidence that disconfirms a held belief.
Ex: Suppose Wilbur has the belief that all women are bad drivers. Wilbur may have a tendency to notice or remember instances where he xperiences a woman driving badly. he is also likely to ignore instances where women are driving well.
Tendency for a person's expectations about the future to influence that future in a way that makes the expectatinos come true.
Famous study conducted by Rosenthal and Jacobson, teachers were told which students had great potential.
occurs when evaluations of something are influenced by the contrast between it and things around it.
Ex: If a teacher grades six essays and the first 5 are terrible and the 6th one is average she is going to think it is really good, solely on the comparison to the other 5 essays.
Muller-Lyer Illusion; Simultaneous Contrast Effect
occurs as a result of our strong tendency to overestimate the significance of internal causes and to underestimate the ower of external causes.
When the chief cause of a person's behavior results from the person's personality traits, behavioral dispositions, attitudes, values, and/or desires, the cause of behavior is an .........
When the chief cause of a person's behavior results from features of the situation the person is in, the cause of behavior is an ......
a person's action requires both a motivational (desire) and cognitive (belief) component
Ex: Smith retrieves a beer from the refrigerator because he is thirsty (motivational component) and he believes that there is at least one beer in the refrigerator (cognitive component).
Is the phenomenon that the majority of people believe they are above aberage in a variety of ways.
1. Groups typically have more info than single individuals.
2. More viewpoints are likely to be represented in groups.
3. Problems that a single person might overlook are more likely to be noiced in a group.
4. Groups are likely to take fewer risks and make less extreme recommendations.
Members of a group often do less than when they work alone.
Is confirmed by the fact that it can be reduced if:
1. eachmember of a group has a specific task and
2. each member is accountable for completeling the task they are assigned.
Ex: in a classroom group work, confidential grading of other members may reduce social loafing.
Group decisions are often more extreme than the decisions their members would make acting alone.
A phenomenon that occurs when people ho take part in a group discussion are willing to support riskier decisions than they would individually, before the group discussion.
1. risk v return- generally speaking, risk is directly proportional to return.
Impairment in decision-making and judgment that can occur in highly cohesive groups with a strong, dynamic leader.
Group members isolate themselves from outside info, try to please the group leader, and agree on a decision even if it is irratinoal.
Ex: JFK discusssing the Bay of Pigs op with his advisers, Arthur Schlesinger was initially opposed. RFK took Schlesinger aside and said, " JFK has made up his mind. Now is the time for everyone to help him all they can."
Can be computed for single events, they are typicall most useful when trying to determine the value of a series of a single event over a significant period of time.
When a peson bases a decision on past investments (that cannot be recovered) rather than on current expected utilities.
Ex: If you buy an Ou/Tx ticket for $150 at the beg. of the season. (Ou is ranked #1 and Tx is ranked #2). But by the game, (Ou has dropped to #21 and Tx to #25), and you are also not feeling well. Due to the ranks and sickness, then you would prefer to not go.
If you decide not to go, acting on your current expected utilities. If you go, bc already paid=sunk cost effect
Occurs when a judgement about alternaties is influenced by the way lternatices is conceptualized or worded.
When alternaties are"framed" in different ways (when an alternative is framed in terms of a loss rather than a gain), we thnk of the alternaties in different ways and this can have an effect on our judgments about those alternatives.
When deciding between alternatives A and B, if and only if the following conditions are met:
1. If A is at least as good as B in every respect and better than B in at least one respect, then A should be preferred to B.
2. The preference order between A and B does not depend in any way on how either alternative is described.
Occurs when the loss of a given size seems bigge than a gain of the same size.
Ex: The loss of $100 tends to be more painful than the pleasure derived form gaining $100.
May explain why man people are guilty of the satus quo Bias, bc they perceive the potential loss of change to be larger than it actually i, and because they perceive the potental gain of change to be smaller than it actually is, they perfer keeping things they way they are to changing.
Occurs when a person values some thing more simply because that person already possesses that thing.
Loss aversion may explain why this occurs. When a person already owns something, giving up that thing is viewed as a loss. However, when a person acquires something new, it is viewd as a gain.
When trying to persuade a person to perform some action or assume a particular belief, sometimes the persuader will first attemp to get the person to agree to something small for the purpose of getting he or she to agree to something larger (the thing the persuader actually wants the person to agree to).
When a persuader gets a person to agree to something on the basis of inaccurate or incomplete information. The persuader is using the _______ technique.
Ex: Jones, used car dealer, offers Smith a buick for $5,000, and Smith agrees. However, right before finishing paperwork, Jones says that the owner of the company will only take $5,500 for the car. In the end, Smith agrees to purchasing the car. Bc Smith has already agred to 5,000, he is more likely to agree to paying 5,500 now.
When trying to persuade a person to perform some action or assume a particular belief, sometimes the persuader will propose something that will almost certainly be refused for the purpose of getting the person to agree to something small (the thing the persuader actually wants the person to agree to).
If you give someone a demanding proposal, they are more likely to accept a more reasonable proposal than they would have been if he had only proposed the reasonable proposal.
For a characteristic, is the frequency or proportion of things in the general population that have that characteristic.
Ex: if one out of every ten thousand people have disease x, then the base rate for disease x is 1/10,000.
Fallacy that occurs when a person ignores or underutilizes base rates when estimating probabilities.
The probability n of outcome A is expressed formally as:
Pr (A)= n; where 0<n>1
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