International Relations October 1 IR is different than Foreign Policy Foreign Policy Process- start to finish study of execution Strategy Decision Making Individuals Rationality Three systematic ways individual Decision-makers diverge from Rationality Perception, Misperception, Rational How you see, is how decisions are made Affect, or Affective Bias How individuals feel, like or dislike Bush vs. Suddam, Bush vs. Shevardnadze Cognitive Bias: HOW YOU THINK Wishful thinking Justification of effort Enemy image Mirror image Historical Analogy Munich analogy, appeasement, Vietnam analogy, quagmire Iraq? Allison?s Models of decision making Rational Model, or Rational Actor Assumes the process is rational and predictable Clarify goals Prioritize goals List alternative policies Investigate consequences of likely policies Select the ?best? or most rational policy Risk is still a factor, bias is still a factor Bureaucratic Politics, or Government Baragaining Model Notes that different agencies with competing interests are involved in the decision making process, and they ultimately bargain for outcomes They are rational, but seek their own interests as the best means to national interests Examples include: State Department vs. Department of Defense (DOD) Afghanistan. Department in State vs. Counter-terrorist specialist in State, etc. Interest and bargaining are key Organizational Process Model Assumes goal and objectives are already established Makes decision based on standard operating procedures (SOP?s) that already exist Competing SOP?s can result in 1) compromise of SOP?s, or 2) one dominant SOP But this is most relevant to the vast majority of ?low-level? decisions which usually leave out the top level of decision making: i.e. mid-level appointments within embassy structures, ceremonial practices with other states in their countries, etc. Must understand COMPETING INTERESTS among agents. PRESIDENTIAL MANAGEMENT MODEL Assumes a management system Collegial Model First step in the process- debate, all interests Second Step reduces to set of choices Third step- reduced group of decision makers- MOST TRUSTED Decision is made by them Ex-Comm , Bush Iraq? Nixon-Kissinger Model Based on all decisions are made by these two alone Key characteristics Leader high interest in For Pol Leader and advisor agree on For Pol Domestic and International Context allows this to happen? rare! Examples: Vietnamization, Bombings, China Triangulation and visits to China and Russia Case Study: Cambodia Invasion 1970 Need for policy makers to get to decisions quickly. To make these decisions you can?t always convene or use committees. A blend of satisfying the immediate needs sufficiently. SATICFICE.
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