Poly Sci: 8/31/10- study of who gets what, when, and how IR- International Relations Intro: subfield of poly sci Relations between nation-states 9/6/10 Basic of IR- how does world look like today and how did it get that way? Not always broken up in states Learn from ancient Greece+Rome 3 Major Turning points in World History: 1648 A.D.- Peace of Westphalia: Peace treaty ended 30 years war: Catholic vs Protestant, involved all major powers; very destructive: Beginning of Modern State System; no states previously Sovereignty- 1. states had the rights to create laws to a territory; following changed from leader to territory; 2. State became highest authority; dukes barons and groups, so now each state has control over itself, 3. In theory each state is recognized and equal; cannot just intervene whenever wanted Multipolarity- not one dominant state, multiple superpowers 1945- End of WWII- moving from multipolarity to bipolar international system- existence of roughly two equal powerful states (U.S & S.U)- Rivals; ?Iron Curtain?; Rival Economic (Political) System- private capitalist system; democracy US; state controlled communist system SU Cold War- next 4 decades Wars fought in name of each side- Angola both sides fueled conflict in that country Beginning of nuclear era 1989-1991- End of Cold War SU disintegrates; end of Warsaw Pact, end of communist monopoly in East End of Berlin Wall- moving into unipolarity; 1 state controls international system Important Changes over past 50 years International Governmental organizations Non-governmental- terrorist groups, Doctors W/O borders Change in which states- no longer as Euro-centric Weaker/poorer states can play a part on world stage Faster technological change- everything is faster, travel is faster/communication ?Smarter weapons? Easier flow between nations Economic changes- growth of world trade; investment in other countries; more exports/imports Essay: Thesis statement; 2-3 supporting examples 9/9/10 How does the world work? Classical Realism- Pessimistic theory: ?World politics is driven by competitive self-interest.?- Countries Focus on power- The world stage is afflicted by a struggle for power between countries. War comes from states pursuing their conflicting interests Zero- Sum game- ( A win for 1 country is a loss for other); economic gains, military gains, technological gains Conflict+ War is CENTRAL AND INEVITABLE Why?- All people, including leaders are naturally self-interested Niccolo Machiavelli-judge based on surface, ends not means Thomas Hobbes- Conflict is a direct result of the nature of human beings Best you can do is understand conflict minimize it. Can try to ?contain? too aggressive countries Idealists are naïve- such as League of Nations, for international peace Interest=Power Good intentions do not lead to sound or even good policy Conflict is natural Neo-Realism IR theories like lenses through which you can see the world- different lenses= different view Pessimistic, conflict and self-interested power, zero- sum game Disagree on structure; It is not individuals, it is about the structure of the international system Conflict is present because International System is anarchic ( no overarching authority providing security and order) Self-help system State of fear/uncertainty Strong, most capable states will dominate/ survive system Don?t be fooled by alliances Create equilibrium to prevent one country from dominating whole system Peace through strength Alliances are just temporary 9/14/10 United Nations: Peace keeping since 1948; 64 nations People have opinions and can talk about them at length Liberalism & Neo-Liberalism Human Nature: Optimistic; change & Cooperation possible Jean Jacques Rousseau (1712-1778)- Humans join together in civil societies because it is easier to gain through cooperation than by relying on one?s self Emphasis on Cooperation Relations between countries can be a non-zero sum (positive sum). Don?t have to be zero-sum Emphasizing, Pursuing, Exercising Power is not the essence of IR Focus on altruism & peace Neo-Liberalism Focus more on International stage than human nature States are important but not only actors There are Intergovernmental Organizations: IGOs: UN, EU States enter willingly international organizations Agree with neo-realists on cause of conflict: Competition among sovereign states in anarchy Disagree on how anarchical There is complex interdependence More opinions Yay!c Complex Interdependence Countries are tied to each other through trade and many economic and social exchanges The result: More cooperation, less conflict Best Approach to peace: International Cooperation International Example: Christmas Truce in WWI: Cooperation during Christmas Cease fire Prisoner?s dilemma: Both sides would be better off if they stop shooting but won?t States can learn to cooperate after many times; recognize over time for better payoff Other liberals argue that democracies do not go to war with each other (Doyle). Democratic Peace Theory 9/16/10 Constructivism- John Lennon was one The importance of borders is just a constructed ideas Anarchy doesn?t automatically lead to conflict- it is what we make of it, not bad or good There is no ?factual? reality out there that the states must naturally be in conflict Self-interested conceptions of security are not a natural consequence of anarchy To cooperate: you need to redefine identity of states, interests Background Info 2 superpowers control world against each other To surprise SU and US talk peacefully (1980s) cold war then ended They saw themselves as enemies but they did not have to be since they were only perceived to be enemies Changes do not change automatically; have to take actions Your interests and identity are not set in stone- ?constructed? and you can change them if you want Can change world stage If the Cuban Missile Crisis was a nuisance it wouldn?t have been a problem Feminism There are different feminist perspectives Look at how the position of women is affected by or affect the international stage. What is really ?security?? Such features as illiteracy rates, poverty issues Post modernists What we think is the political reality is actually just created boy our discourse- might not be reality; whatever you say, whatever I say 9/21/10 How to analyze foreign policy: 3 levels of analysis What makes states do what they do? How can we explain their differences? Why some states exert power while others do not? How to understand what is going on? The foreign policy of every state = product both external +internal Levels of Analysis Individual Level of Analysis: Individual leaders and people in general affect policy Great Man Theory: History can be explained by the actions of great men- their charisma, use of power, wisdom, Machiavellian behavior You should analyze leader?s characteristics/decision-making process to figure out why they made a particular decision Humans as Species Cognitive Factors: Cognitive Consistency, Wishful Thinking, Use of heuristic devices Emotional Factors: mood Biological factors: desire for territory Gender: Propensity towards violence Organizational Behavior Role Behavior: Self expectations and external expectations. (E.g. a leader should ?act?) Groupthink: Pressure within an organization to achieve consensus Personality: positive versus negative personality, passive versus Active Personality Ego and Ambition: desire to be seen in a certain way (strong, fearless, etc) Political History and Personal Experience- e.g. Attempted assassination of Bush?s father State level of Analysis: The way gov?t of a country is organized and operated, Look inside the state Type of Go?vt, Situation, PolicyType of Gov?t: Authoritarian versus Democratic Gov?t Type if Situation: Crisis versus non-crisis situation Type of Policy: Foreign versus Inter-mestic policy Political Culture: Society?s widely held, traditional values and its fundamental practices that are slow to change Foreign Policy-Making Actors: See how executives, bureaucracies, legislatures, opposition, interest groups, and public opinion interact System Level of Analysis: The external realities and pressures that influence a country; Characteristics of the International Stage: ( A change in the system will cause change in state behavior). Structural Characteristics: The Organization of Authority, Scope Level and Intensity of Interactions Power Relationships: The Number of Powerful Actors: Unipolar, bipolar, multipolar system. Economic Realities: Interdependence, economic interests Norms: Norms against invasion, civilian deaths, use of nuclear weapons, human rights abuses. Case study: #1: Why did US invade Iraq: something about Bush himself? If someone else had done it would it had been the same? State level: How different organizations/departments within US interacted to make their decisions System Level: Unipolar world, other states try to balance against US power, Iraq views as threat by US Case study #2: Why did Egypt recognize Israel in 1979. 9/23/10 Nations and Nationalism Organization Nationalism: The belief that nations are the main organizing group of humanity National Anthems: All= powerful expression of feeling for nation Nation: A people who 1. share demographic and cultural similarities- they share cultural symbols. 2. Possess a feeling of community (and mutually identify themselves as different from other groups). 3. Want to control themselves politically Nationalism is promoted through: Flags, Patriotic holidays, National anthems, Maps/education, Monuments, Capitol buildings Nation-state: Combines the idea of Nation and State Nation: see above State: a sovereign, independent political organization with a territory, population and government Nation-states are central figure of Intl System- 300-400yrs In some cases Nations+ Nationalism came before States, In other cases States preceded Nations (colonialism in Africa) Nation-state is ideally, when virtually all of a nation is united within the boundaries of a state. The people overwhelmingly identify with the nation. E.g.: U.S, France, Switzerland, Norway NATION AND STATE MISMATCH: One state w/ Multiple nations: Canada, Quebec Nations w/o a state: Kurdistan, Palestinians Multiple nations within Multiple states: Afghanistan+ surrounding states Difference between Nationalism and Patriotism Patriotism: Love of one?s country Nationalism: Not only love but a feeling that one?s nation is better than other; desire to better one?s country at expense of others 9/28/10 Globalism/Globalization Traditional path: nationalism/patriotism Alternative: Globalism/Globalization Nationalism: National sentiment can be positive? E.g. patriotism: love of one?s country: promotes democracy, discourages imperialism, promotes economic development, promotes diversity and experimentation. Negatives: Creates ?us? versus ?them?, Reluctance to help other, Xenophobia, Discrimination and oppression, imperialism Nationalism recently come under a challenge from globalism Globalism: Idea that the world functions not as separate parts (nations), but as a whole There are many commonalities and connections cutting across national differences Many links/connections that unite numerous countries at once Globalism is not new Ancient Rome: emporium of world, trade to Africa, Asia, connected people under rule Germinal phase 15th-18th century: exploratory of new world More? 7 altogether Takes off from 1870 to 1915 World today: interconnected by mobile phone, internet: Economic chains of multi-nationals connect global ?North? (developed countries) and ? South? Globalization: Increase in the rate of globalism. A ?thickening? of globalism: Increased density of networks: Increased institutional velocity; Increased complex interdependence What is happening? Economic Globalization: Increased flows in trade and capital (FDI: Foreign Direct Investment) Cultural Globalization: Increased linguistic connections, Americanization of culture Political Globalization: NGOs- promoting transnational identity: Inter-governmental Organizations: IGOs Technology good reason why it?s happening A challenge to nationalism: Transnational identities NGOs: Organizations that operate across national borders, have a membership comprised of private individuals, and do not answer to any government NGOs: Raise public awareness for their cause, provide info to public and gov?ts to further goal Some NGOs that protest globalization Positive: Economic Globalization: makes people better, MORE TRADE= increased wealth Political Globalization: more cooperation =less war Growth of NGOs: more people connected to each other= more understanding, communication Negative: Economic Globalization: making rich richer& poor poorer 1980: $1 in LDC= $14 EDC Now 1: 24 Cultural Globalization American culture is taking over, eroding national/regional divisions 9/30/10 Nation-states and power Nations: a community of people who 1. Share demographic and cultural similarities 2.Possess a feeling of community 3. Want to control themselves politically State: a unit of governance that exercises legal authority over a specific territory and the people in it and that recognizes no legitimate external higher authority Nation-state; Democracy versus authoritarian Democracy: Derived from Greek ?demokratia? Term breaks down to people or ?rule by the people? At very least system should give you basic: Political Rights: vote freely, frequently, for competitive candidates, have something say in policy Civil Liberties: express yourself freely, equality, assembly Democracy might have ramifications for international relations Democratic Peace Theory Power plays an important role in relations with states Ability to get others to do what you want them to do National Power: Capacity of a state to get other states and other actors to do what it wants them to do Achieve its objectives, against all obstacles Elements of power: geography, population? Geography 10/5/10 Traditional Actors: Nation-states and power 2 kinds of power: Hard Power: Make ?em do what you want them to do Coercion Resources: Military, coercive use of economic power (e.g. sanctions) 2 ways to make them do something : Sticks (negative incentives) -Threats, brute force - Carrots (positive incentive) Reward Ex: aid, favorable trade arrangement, lift sanctions Soft Power: Make ?em want to do what we want them to do Ability to achieve goals through attraction rather that coercion Resources: ideas, institutions, diplomatic skills, culture A state?s ability to get another state to do something depends on : Sum total of relative capabilities (elements of power) Mutual perceptions of capabilities and intentions Willingness to use capabilities Ability to use most effective capabilities Alternative Actors: International Organizations Huge increase in IOs in last ½ century, and importance Why increase: increased international contact; transportation and technology make it possible Increased global interdependence: address issues beyond the control of states Expansion of transnational problems Failure of state-centered system to provide security Efforts of small states to bind together to gain strength Success of IGOs generates more IGOs: links between gov?ts Roles of IGOs: Arena where states can express their interests Center of cooperation: To bring states closer together. Supra-nation organization United Nations: IGO that seeks to facilitate cooperation in: International peace; international security; economic development; human rights Forerunner: League of Nations: established in 1919 under the Treaty of Versailles ?to promote international cooperation and to achieve peace and security?; ceased after failing to prevent WWII 1945: 50 countries meet in San Fran to form UN 1945: 51 countries 2010: 192 Basic principles of UN charter: Maintain international peace and security Develop friendly relations among states Be center for harmonizing actions of nations UN set in in 6 parts: Security Council, General Assembly, Economic and Social Council, the Trusteeship Council, the Secretariat, and International Court of Justice The Security Council Has the primary responsibility for maintaining peace and security in the world; can do this through: economic sanctions, peacekeeping missions, BINDING Permanent 5: US, UK, France, Russia, China 10- non permanent members (who stays for 2 years) Rules for making decisions Each member had 1 vote Passed only is at least 9 of 15 vote yes If any of P5 members say ?no? then decision does not pass General Assembly: main deliberative organ of UN Tackles world?s most pressing issues Important indicator of world public opinion Its decisions are non-binding. Only recommendations- all 192 countries Each country has one representative Rules Each country get 1 vote If a very important matter, nothing can pass unless 2/3 agree Normal issue, only need ½ Economic and Social Council: 54 gov?t are elected by Gen As. For overlapping three-year terms; economic and culturally human right Secretariat: carries out day-to-day work of UN, administers policies Secretary General is a symbol of UN ideals and a spokesman 10/7/10 Regional IO cooperation Levels of Economic cooperation Freed Trade Area: No tariffs Custom Union: No tariffs+ Common external tariff Common or single market: Free flow of goods, capital, labor- no barrier to trade Economic union: try to harmonize economy Monetary union: Single currency/Central bank European Union EU= moved further toward economic cooperation an integration than any group of idependent states in history 27 different countries EU has symbols Enlargement: 6 to 15-25- 27 countries 1952- today: started e/ coal steel community Three Key Players The European Parliament- voice of people The council of Members- voice of Member states: One minister from each EU country Presidency: rotates every 6 months Decides EU laws and budget together w/ Parliament Manages common foreign and security policy Summit: held 4 times a year The European Commission Citizens, interest groups, experts: discuss, consult Comission: makes formal proposal Parliament and Council of Ministers decide jointly National of local authorities: implement Commission and Court of Justice: monitor implementation European Union Achievements Facilitate economic growth in post WWII Recent enlargement unites East w/ West Helped to build infrastructure 10/12/10 North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) Free trade agreement between Canada, Mexico, USA-1994 Remove nearly all tariffs Allows more trade between all three countries Increases bargaining power between the nations EU+NAFTA illustrate costs and benefits of free economic interchange at regional level War and Insecurity Problems of War: Why has war been such as Security: a very contested concept Freedom from threats to core values Focus on individuals, nations, or international security Common security/cooperative security Levels of analysis: Different approaches to explaining international relations Individual Level: Characteristics of individuals eg leaders State level: characteristic of states, societies, political system System level: anarchy, distribution of power Individual level: greed, belligerence, insecurity, aggressiveness State level: culture, political system, economic system System Level: Anarchy, polarity?, resource scarcity Problems of cheating, relative versus absolute gains Wars have multiple causes: Proximate, Underlying Anarchy = 1 underlying cause Wars occur because nothing to prevent them Proximate causes: when- depend on leaders Leader?s characteristics Support of state Types of Warfare Conventional: 2 or more armies confront each other Unconventional: Nuclear war, chemical/biological, Asymmetrical war: Indirect approach by weaker force- many versions including guerilla warfare Conventional war less likely Asymmetrical ware more likely Future of war: loss of combatant/non-combatant distinction Nonstate 10/14/10 International terrorism Threat or act of violence on civilians to intimidate for some political purpose Making a psychological impact beyond the victims, publicity is very important, although just may want to destabilize a region, country Separatists: in Russia trying to secede from nation Techniques include: bombs/explosives- including suicide Kidnapping/hostages Hijacking airplanes 9/11 plane as a missile Growth of International Terrorism Not new but increased in terrorist attacks in 1970s and 80s Why? Advances in modern communications Instant access to a global audience w/ TV Internet and cell phones: Vital form of communication among dispersed groups, individuals-networks Information source-maps, people, tech info Training instruction Coordination, propaganda, recruitment Increased vulnerability of society: e.g. jets, skyscrapers New weapons technologies Who? Diverse groups w/ different motivations e.g Subnational groups e.g. Tamils, Chechyns Internat?l revolutionary groups: Beider Meinhof/ Red Army Faction Religious extremists More terrorists groups motivated by religious extremism now State dept.: 1 religious group 1980; half in 1999, higher now Focus: Al Qaeda Origins in insurgency against Soviet occupiers: Afghan ?mujahedeen? conservative religions and tribal groups Global ?jihad? against Soviet infidel Osama Bin Laden : finances, organizes Al Qaeda network US convert support to Mujahedeen thru Pakistan Soviet departure- Civil war among 7 muj. Groups Taliban takeover- failed state,safe haven for AQ Jihad turns against West US early 90?s- 9/11 US demands Taliban hand over Osama They don?t so US overthrows them in 2001: Install new gov?t, get rid of some Taliban + AQ Scatther ? Pakistan Afghan border Taliban today: Taliban resurgence Training, staging areas on Pak Current International Terrorist Threat 8 years US/NATO efforts to capture AQ Some of leaders killed, Osama in hiding Leaderless model: dispersed groups, varying degrees ways connected Less orders than ideological direction and practical training Characteristics: Motivated by militant, fundamentalist version of Islam Combine political objectives with religious fervor Broader appeal: protect purity of Islam+ oppose US politics State supported terrorism versus State directed terrorism (gives operational directions) But current concern with non-state actors How to deal w/ terrorism Anti-terrorist measures: decrease vulnerability Sharing info across borders Combined effort War on Terror: military problem ?counter-terrorism?- attack the terrorists How to attack & defeat an enemy w/ no defined territory or population Problem of killing innocent people: increases anger How to deter aspiring martyrs Counter-insurgency: drain the swamp that breeds terrorists; change the conditions that facilitate recruitment Win hearts and minds Troop increase in Afghanistan 10/19/10 The Nuclear Predicament Major source of insecurity (in addition to war, terrorism etc) Most destructive of the multiple types of weapons of mass destruction What?s so awful: Speed+ suddenness with which Annihilation of Large Masses of People can occur Fallout increases # of people Only twice been used (US) Hiroshima+ Nagasaki Even those that didn?t die affected by radiation Predicament Before: Cold War; only 2 nations (US, USSR) had nuclear arsenals Missiles, planes Exchanges= threat to planet Johnson ?Daisy? ad Today: plenty nukes around 23,000 8000 deployed 2000 on alert But major concern ?rouge states? and terrorists Change from mainly a vertical to horizontal proliferation problem Vertical proliferation: Increase in nuclear weapons among countries that already have them In nuclear club US, Russia, UK, France, China- 5 Nuclear Weapons States (NWS) DESIGNATED IN Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT) India, Pakistan, North Korea- 3 other states have conducted nuclear tests Israel- probably has weapons but will not confirm or deny Horizontal: Spread of nuclear weapons to countries that do not have any Technology Fissionable material Equipment to produce fissionable material Tests A way to deliver this nuclear weapon Non state actors/terrorists ?Rouge state? potential How to prevent spread of nukes? Limited Utility- not very useful against terrorists, not very useful in negotiations, not useful in guerilla warfare, nor in settling disputes Psychological concept: Aim: to change intentions; to dissuade someone from doing something they would otherwise do to you Disagreements on purpose Deter only? Deter what? First use of nukes? Nuclear non-proliferation treaty: No nukes for 30 yrs, until India-Pakistan tests in 1998 Discriminatory character- hav/have not Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty- voted by General Assembly in 1996 but not entered into force International Organizations IAEA Effort to stop N Korea and IRAN Carrots and sticks Economic sanctions, threats of force Pre-emptive strike Protect loose nukes N Korea threatens to build more nukes Address motivations, reduce incentives Increase security More diplomatic attention De-emphazsize importance of nukes 10/21 Guest Lecture Jonathan Ventura- Los Alamos National Laboratory Nuclear weapons- complex+ controversial Los Alamos- safe, effective so President can use Deterrence- one aspect is proving to allies and adversaries effective stockpile Never want to be used again Give leaders time to think Accuracy- into a target that is size of a football field- WOW! 5,133 weapons- Los Alamos responsible for 90% Deterrence- create set of conditions that would cause an adversary to conclude that the cost of any particular act against US would be bad Credible nuclear deterrence: Clearly articulated policy that can be sustained over many Congresses and Administrations; Forces in being; Robust scientific and engineering complex Los Alamos contributed to Nation?s deterrent posture for more than 65 years; 1943 established as part of Manhattan project; 1994: Stockpile Stewardship Program established to ensure the safety, security and reliability of the stockpile 11,000 employees; highest concentration of PhDs Two paths to the atomic bomb: Uranium-235 (produced by enrichment) Plutonium-239 (produced in reactors) Implosion major part 1947: George Kennan (Mr. X) publishes an article in Foreign Affairs on containment. When Iran conducts 1st nuclear test will be major As more nations gain nuclear energy more could get weapons Terrorists may not have the ability to gain as much as a state they are still a threat Los Alamos? science and people are providing the technologies to help address the multi-polar realities Safe, secure, and effective stockpile with the ultimate goal of a world free of nuclear weapons requires- repair nuclear infrastructure, recruit and retain a workforce Help to solve other national priorities; technologies to reduce national security threats Three part weapons program strategy: Stockpile management; Science, technology and engineering investments; Infrastructure investments Who is the next generation? Big Deal: Operating conditions of a nuclear weapon exists nowhere else and cannot be fully replicated in lab
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